At this stage of the course, after having studied the essence of political power, what actually makes power, it should already be clear why we need to study the phenomenon of public opinion.

From Plato to Machiavelli, there seems to be an agreement that political power always rests on opinion. And this axiom applies, as Hume stated, for democratic and liberal regimes, as well as for the most tyrannical systems humanity has witnessed.

The battle for political power is the battle for the public opinion.

Political communication mostly studies the strategies used by political actors to be successful in this battle.

To understand how political communication works, we must explore the not always clear relationship between the “public” opinion and the “published” opinion, between the popular feelings about significant issues and the dominant opinion articulated and reproduced by the mass media.

Can the “published” opinion determine the “public” opinion? Do the opinions that appear in the media directly and inevitably influence the opinion of the people who are exposed to those messages?

And what would be the implications for the political game?

Public opinion appears to be the only legitimate source of political power (at least in democratic societies, there should be no doubt about it). If mass media can determine public opinion, how the publics feels about current issues, we should conclude that they are also in control of the political power.

As a matter of fact, mass media is the main channel used by political actors and institutions to develop their strategies and achieve their goals. It is in the media presence where the candidate spent the most important part of the money they raise. This is also the reason why political campaigns are so incredibly expensive.

This learning unit starts defining what public opinion is. We will discuss the social function as well it fulfills.

We will focus on two authors who are considered classics in public opinion research.

The first one, Walter Lippmann, was a very influential journalist and political advisor. His book “Public Opinion”, first published in 1922, is prophetic. It anticipates the most important findings and theories produced by mass communication researchers in the 20^th Century. In this book, Lippmann studies the triangular relationship between mass media, public opinion and political power.

We will finish the section on public opinion with Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. Her celebrated hypothesis of the spiral of silence is the most successful attempt to explain the dynamics of public opinion, how public opinion arises and changes. 

Public Opinion Defined

Public opinion could be defined as 

A dynamic and tacit agreement that determines the ethical and aesthetic values in every society.

This simple definition helps us introduce the essence of the socialpsychological phenomenon we are studying. In the course of the lecture, we will round up the definition with important nuances and elements.

Public Opinion:  A Semantic Analysis

It is useful to reflect about the meaning(s) of the two words that build the linguistic construct:

Public and Opinion

Opinion:

Plato distinguishes in the  REPUBLIC, “opinion” and “knowledge”. Opinion is, according to this author, something darker than knowledge, but clearer than ignorance.

Opinion will always imply a judgment.

Public:

The term “public” has three denotative meanings:

• “Public”, in legal sense, emphasizes the etymological origin of the term. Public is something that is open to everyone, a public space, a public path.
• “Public” might also express the involvement of the state.
• “Public”, as a substantive, refers to group of people, a collectivity formed by anonymous individuals. This “public” can also act as a tribunal (public eye).

Public Versus Published Opinion

Published Opinion is the tenor opinion of what you read, hear or watch in the Mass-Media. The published opinion will become public opinion only if it is adapted to the nature and characteristics of Public Opinion. Mass Media cannot create public opinion, but they can articulate it – give the public opinion an expression.

The Opinion of the Majority?

• The Majority of the population may be in favor of a particular position or opinion, but if they do not express it, this opinion will never become “public opinion”.
• Silent Majority
• Pluralistic ignorance

Fundamental Names

Edward A. Ross

• Public Opinion as a means of social control
• Public Opinion will always be conservative.
• It will always preserve the STATUS QUO.
  • We defined the Status Quo as the system of beliefs, values and social structures that characterizes a society.
• It always will promote conformism.

Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann

• “Spiral of Silence”
• Opinions that are not expressed tend to fade away, and finally to disappear.
• The individual is afraid of feeling isolated – and therefore avoids expressing ideas against what he/she perceives to be the majority.
• Ideas that are un-expressed, become un-thought, and finally, un-thinkable.

Paul Lazarsfeld

• Band-Wagon effect.
• People join those opinions and ideas that are perceived as generally accepted to feel in the “winning side”, to belong with the winner.
• The last-minute election swing

Final and Official Definition:

A tacit and public consensus, a general agreement concerning issues that have a strong moral or aesthetic load, and that determines the ideas you can express or the behaviors you can adopt in public without taken the risk of being isolated.